Presidential adviser says he would 'welcome' Chinese attack

Taipei Times | March 31 2006

There will "never" be a military conflict in the Taiwan Strait and it is a "mistake" for the U.S. government to think that maintaining the status quo is the only way to handle the Taiwan issue, Senior Adviser to the President Koo Kuan-min (???) told reporters in an interview on Wednesday.

"China will not attack Taiwan because it needs five to 10 years of peace to develop itself into an economic and military power so it can dominate the Asian region," Koo claimed.

Although a military confrontation is likely given the volatile state of cross-strait affairs, there won't be war in the Taiwan Strait because China would not want to drive away foreign investors and risk an economic collapse, Koo said.

If, unfortunately, the worst-case scenario happens, Koo said, "I would welcome it."

"Taiwan's biggest crisis is there is no national consensus on the nation's future under China's military threat," he said.

"But if China were to launch a military attack against Taiwan, a consensus would be formed within a week," Koo said.

"I told the president after the matter [National Unification Council controversy] was over that we are very fortunate that things didn't get out of hand. But we have to more aggressively communicate with the U.S. government."

That was Koo's answer to U.S. officials at the National Security Council, who asked his opinion on the possibility of war in the Taiwan Strait, when he visited Washington in 1995.

Koo visited Washington again last October to discuss the issue of maintaining the status quo in the Taiwan Strait with council officials. The 80-year-old Koo said that he told them he might not live another 10 years to see his theory proven true, but it was time to "review" the status quo and "four nos and one not" pledge President Chen Shui-bian (???) made in his first inaugural address in 2000.

"The gravity of the status quo has shifted to China over the past years. The U.S. government understands that it must 'redefine' the status quo in the Taiwan Strait," he claimed. "That is why they are willing to compromise on the National Unification Council (NUC) controversy."

The reason that the U.S. government wanted Chen to reiterate the "four nos and one not" promise was because the U.S. government believed the Taiwan issue can only be handled by maintaining the "status quo."

A top go-between in the NUC controversy, Koo said that the page on the NUC controversy was "closed," and the U.S. government had found the results acceptable.

While Kuomintang (KMT) Chairman Ma Ying-jeou (???) has denounced the matter as a waste of time because the U.S. government believes the NUC has only been put on hold rather than abolished, Koo said that the political meaning was "the same."

"It is impossible for two countries to share the same interest 100 percent," he said. "Sometimes ambiguity is necessary to make both parties happy and benefit from it."

Koo admitted that he is worried about US-Taiwan relations because the DPP administration did not begin interacting with the U.S. government until it came to power in 2000.

In light of the lack of diplomatic ties, Koo proposed that the administration take advantage of the private sector.

"I told the president after the matter [NUC controversy] was over that we are very fortunate that things didn't get out of hand," he said. "But we have to more aggressively communicate with the U.S. government."

If it were not for the personal connections established between private individuals and U.S. officials, Koo said that the matter would not have ended smoothly.

Koo called on the U.S. government to establish an official communication channel with the Democratic Progressive Party administration, including regular meetings between high-level U.S. and Taiwanese officials.

Koo called Ma "absurd" for blaming Taiwan's shrinking international presence on the NUC controversy, saying that Ma should have criticized Beijing's Anti-Secession Law rather than denouncing the president.

Ceasing the function of the NUC and the application of the unification guidelines was the most peaceful and cost-effective means to obtain the best political effect in countering the Anti-Secession Law, Koo said.

It is true that some U.S. officials and think tanks, whom Koo de-scribed as the "red team," opposed the idea of ceasing the function of the NUC, but Koo claimed that they represented neither the U.S. government nor the international community.

While Ma argues that Taiwan is already an independent state and does not need to declare independence again, Koo dismissed this perspective as "naive." Koo said that even though over 90 percent of Taiwanese recognize Taiwan as an independent state, the "problem" lay in the fact that Taiwan was not a completely independent, sovereign country.

What the public wants to know is how this situation can be "remedied" to make Taiwan a genuinely "normal and independent" country.

Koo also dismissed Ma's argument that the pro-independence force was a reaction to China, saying it was but a natural and inevitable development for what he called an "immigrant society" like Taiwan to want to be "free" of a traditional society like China.

"The KMT used to be a security force, but now it, together with its political ally, the People First Party, has become a dangerous force," he said.

A small private group recently argued that Taiwanese sovereignty lies in the hands of the U.S., based on the omission of mention of Taiwan in a 1952 treaty, and that if the U.S. claims Taiwan as its territory, Taiwan will become an independent country.

Commenting on the radical theory, Koo claimed that it was a "warranted" theory based on the US' War Law, and it was the same theory used by former U.S. secretary of state Colin Powell when he said that Taiwan did not enjoy sovereignty.

However, it is not an easy task to resolve Taiwan's sovereignty problem with some 60-year-old legislation, considering the many changes that have taken place in the Taiwan Strait over the years, he said.

Describing the coverage by newspapers of Ma's just-concluded U.S. trip as "impractical," Koo dismissed media speculation that the U.S. government's arrangement for Ma to meet with high-level officials, including Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, was a deliberate move to embarrass Chen.

"I saw then-US deputy secretary of state Richard Armitage when I visited Washington in October 2003. What does that make me?" Koo said.

Koo said that he told Armitage during the meeting that he had three wishes. First was to see Taiwan's representative office in the U.S. become "Taiwan Institute in America" (TIA), as opposed to the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT).

For the U.S. government, the name change is a small favor, but for Taiwan, Koo said, it was an important matter. Judging from the U.S. government's understanding of Taiwan's current situation, Koo said that this should be achievable.

Second, Koo said that he would like to see the U.S. government stop serving as "Beijing's hit man" in suppressing Taiwanese Independence because such a strategy was "bound to incite anti-US sentiment" among the Taiwanese.

When Koo placed full-page advertisements in the Washington Post and the New York Times calling on the U.S. to abandon the "one China" policy in 2004, he said that he privately received positive responses from U.S. President George W. Bush's administration officials.

Third, Koo said that he jokingly asked Armitage whether he would be invited to Bush's re-election party.

Koo also criticized Ma for his lack of a political stand by describing a "Republic of Taiwan" as China's main enemy and the Republic of China as its lesser enemy.

"I don't know whether he's speaking on behalf of Taiwan or Beijing," Koo said.

On the issue of the deadlock over Taiwan's sovereignty in cross-strait negotiations, Koo said the administration might want to address the problem from a different perspective: brotherhood.

If both sides see each other as members of a family, Koo said that Taiwan will be proud of its big brother's success and China will likewise be proud of its little brother's achievements.

Before Taiwan sits down and talks with China, Koo said that the administration had to make clear its requests and bottom line.

"If I were the president, I would ask China to accept Taiwan as a nation and help Taiwan join the UN. That is the bottom line," he said. "Of course, there's a large gap between Taiwan's and China's bottom line of 'one country, two systems,' but that is why we have to talk and find a solution based on the principle of brotherhood."

Koo claimed that China would only be willing to talk with Taiwan under three circumstances. First, if Taiwan enacts a new constitution, changes its national title and declares independence in one or two years. Second, the U.S. recognizes Taiwan as a country. And third, China is so overwhelmed with its internal problems and turmoil that it wishes to swiftly "resolve" the Taiwan problem.

Any other circumstance other than these three would merely be "wishful thinking," Koo said.

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