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Neutrality, abortion and Dustin the turkey threaten to cause Irish referendum upset Henry McDonald and Ian Traynor It is an unlikely alliance: ultra-rightwing Catholics, traditional nationalists, pro-American free marketeers and the far left. Add in a pop star and a turkey puppet called Dustin and you have a force which threatens to sink a reform project designed to transform how nearly 500 million Europeans are governed. The Irish Republic goes to the polls today to ratify or reject the Lisbon EU reform treaty, which was meant to map out Europe's future in the 21st century. The potential for an upset is very real. Forget that Ireland used to be one of the most pro-European nations in the EU, thanks to lavish grant aid worth a net €40bn (£16bn) since it joined the then EEC in 1973. Domestic fears over rising unemployment, concern about the loss of Irish influence within the EU, and claims that European law will let in abortion by the back door have put the treaty in danger.
(Article continues below) In moves to stir up anti-European feeling the no camp has deployed an eclectic range of celebrities, while the face of Peter Mandelson, the EU's trade commissioner, has been used on giant billboards to scare Irish farmers fearful about the impact a global trade deal on agriculture. The exhortation to "Say no to Mandelson's Europe" kept the normally pro-European Irish Farmers Association procrastinating until the last minute when it finally called on its 85,000 members to vote yes. Arguably the most tenacious of the no forces has been Libertas, the free-market group founded by businessman Declan Ganley. Ganley bought plane tickets to Brussels on Friday for the prime minister, Brian Cowen, and two pro-treaty opposition leaders, an invitation for them to return to Brussels to get a better deal. Pop star Jim Corr warned that Ireland was sleepwalking into a European superstate with its own army, endangering Irish neutrality, a theme the hard left focused on during the campaign. And fans of the comic puppet Dustin were so outraged over the turkey's failure to get into the final of the Eurovision Song Contest that they organised Bebo and Facebook campaigns against Lisbon, insisting: "Europe didn't vote for Dustin so vote no to Lisbon." Elsewhere, there is a large constituency fearful about the loss of national identity. Niamh Jamieson of Dublin is typical of voters worried about Irish influence being diluted within the EU. "Some of the oldest and most politically involved women have expressed regret that having seen their generation's struggle, at some cost, to be independent of Britain and manage their own affairs democratically, they stand on the brink of giving all that away to an unelected EU bureaucracy," she said. "There is a basic mistrust of the whole project. That is why I'm voting no." Yesterday Cowen attacked the "scare tactics", denying the treaty would mean the creation of a pan-European army or subvert Irish control over policy on taxation and abortion. Despite the strength of the no campaign, privately the government is hopeful of victory on the basis of internal polling that shows 55:45 in favour. But the prospect of a no vote remains an acute anxiety - and not just for Cowen. A no vote would scupper a treaty that provides for a new dispensation for the EU, streamlining the European commission, redefining how the EU is run, changing the voting system to better reflect the clout of individual countries, giving the EU its first sitting president, its own diplomatic service and a European foreign minister, and doing away with national vetoes in justice and home affairs. Some in Brussels and London would quietly celebrate a no vote , since they are quite satisfied with the status quo and fear losing out under the new deal. Those with most to gain are Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin and President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris. Lisbon is Merkel's treaty. She worked tirelessly during Germany's EU presidency last year to draft and get agreement on the new treaty, and the Germans are extremely anxious about the impact of a no vote. Such an outcome could also wreck Sarkozy's ambitious plans for the EU French presidency which starts on July 1, and leave him serving out six months of crisis-management.
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