Traders bet Obama beats McCain in U.S. election

Alan Elsner
Reuters
Thursday, June 5, 2008

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama will beat Republican John McCain in the November U.S. presidential election, prediction market traders were betting on Wednesday.

Traders on the Dublin-based Intrade prediction market gave Obama a 61 percent chance of winning the November 4 election, versus a 35 percent chance for McCain. Traders on the Iowa Electronic Markets gave the Democrat an almost 62 percent chance of winning, versus a 39 percent chance for the Republican.

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Prediction exchanges let traders buy and sell contracts on the likelihood of future events. Contracts are usually structured so prices can be read as a percentage chance of an event occurring. Studies of prediction markets have shown they have an accuracy comparable to that of public opinion polls.

Traders were less certain about the vice presidential running mate for either candidate. Around midday on Wednesday, Obama's chief Democratic rival, Hillary Clinton, was seen as having a 22 percent chance of being his pick.

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