I am writing the article to show the Ron Paul supporters, of whom I am one, just how Ron Paul can win the primaries.

WHERE RON PAUL STANDS

First, we need some analysis. Dr. Paul is in need of a 1st-3rd place finish in as many states as possible. Recent data shows that Ron Paul is in 5th or 6th place. He did receive a 4th place finish in Michigan on Tuesday. Dr. Paul needs a "few" first place finishes, my friends, so his delegate number goes up. He also needs a few 2nd and 3rd place finishes as well. Can this happen? Can someone who is literally still an unknown by voters and potential voters move up that quickly in the polls? Can someone that is still being ignored by the media and treated as a plague win? Yes, it can happen, and it needs to happen on Super Tuesday, February 5, 2008.

Ron Paul may well finish 6th in South Carolina and 6th in Florida. It would be unfortunate, although Ron Paul could place 3rd or 4th. No one really knows how he will place in Nevada. There still is time, though, to make a difference in these three states. If what is outlined below is followed.

WHAT IS AHEAD

With so many states voting, it will be impossible for any one candidate to spend significant time in any one state. Each candidate will be choosing a strategy to win. Romney will try to target almost every state. Giuliani and McCain will target states that have more moderates. Thompson and Huckabee will target more southern states. Each candidate has a republican demographic they are trying to get to vote for them. Since no candidate can spend significant time in all of the February 5th states, some states may have 1 stop by each candidate, if that. Some states may not get visited at all. Ron Paul will more than likely go to states that have a message of freedom and the constitution will resonate with the voters. He will probably target states that have many "conservatives".

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February 5th will be a test of organization, get out to vote efforts, grassroots/volunteer support, and in some cases, which candidate has the most money. Here is what each candidate can use to get votes in a state:

1) Depend on name recognition
2) Depend on the media
3) Advertise with radio, TV, mailers
4) Go to the state and hold rallies
5) Depend on their volunteers to get the vote out and advertise them.

A candidate may use more than one but the one that has all of these running efficiently will get more votes than those who don’t.

CASE IN POINT-Giuliani and Thompson skipped Michigan, they placed behind Ron Paul. They were depending on name recognition and media coverage to get the votes. They did not have a grassroots effort in Michigan, so while they may have the first two, that only will go so far. A grassroots effort, and advertising helped him get 4th place.

The fundraising numbers have not been released yet for all of the Republican campaigns, so we don’t have a clue how much money each campaign has to spend. Giuliani won’t go to every February 5th state, neither will Huckabee or Thompson. Ron Paul, Romney, and McCain might; however, they won’t be able to spend much time in each state. As of today there are 18 days until February 5th. There are around 20 states to campaign in, plus those held before February 5th.

Case in point-Ron Paul received his largest percentage of votes in Iowa. He had volunteers out working the state, but so did all of the other campaigns except Giuliani. Ron Paul did win Jefferson County in Iowa because his meetup volunteers performed the grassroots efforts. Grassroots efforts done right will get the people to the polls.

Maine will vote on February 1 and the following states will vote on February 5th: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, New Jersey, New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Utah. West Virginia will be holding their state convention on this day to select some of the delegates.

Notice that California and Illinois are on February 5th. These are large states. One month later the last big state, Texas, will hold their primary on March 4th. Unless there is a landslide for one candidate that has already won 1st place, and gets 1st again in both South Carolina and Florida, there won’t be a front runner and all of these states on February 5th are up for grabs. My prediction is that going into Super Tuesday there won’t be a front runner.

HOW RON PAUL CAN WIN

How can Ron Paul win though? One word - GOTV. This acronym stands for Get Out The Vote. Right now Ron Paul needs a good showing in all February 5th states. He needs a first place finish in a few, a second and third place finish in a few more. Which ones will it be? Who knows? That is up to you.

Most Republicans don’t know what Ron Paul stands for. It is my belief that if they did they would consider voting for him over the other candidates. What will propel Ron Paul to victory is to have every person that supports Ron Paul to sign up as a precinct leader on the ronpaul2008.com website. The site will then give you instructions on what to do.

As a political consultant for many years, I used a GOTV strategy that won 88% of the time. While I don’t know exactly what the Ron Paul campaign wants their volunteers to do, there is only so much they can ask them to do. Gauging their organization in Iowa, I believe that what I am about to recommend should not go against what the campaign is trying to do, but supplement it.

First you need to register to vote and then sign up as a precinct leader on the RP08 site. Read through what the campaign wants you to do. First and foremost, do what they ask you to do. Second, take my recommendations into consideration and then apply them, too. I always had my candidates go door-to-door and talk with the voters. Ron Paul can’t go to every neighborhood in all 20 states, but his volunteers can. Each volunteer needs to develop a plan depending on the size of the precinct they live in or want to work in. If you have a large precinct you may need a person to help you, or you may just target registered Republicans.

You find out who the registered Republicans are by calling the Ron Paul HQ and telling them you want to go door-to-door in your precinct. (Sign up as a leader first). They should have a list for you. Figure out who you are going to talk to. I would purchase some Ron Paul Slim Jims, and maybe a t-shirt to wear. Go door-to-door, keeping track of who was home and who wasn’t.

Those that are home, talk to them and ask who they support and why. Most conversations won’t last more than a few minutes. However, the important thing is to identify who all of the Ron Paul supports are, who needs more information and who is not a supporter. Document all of this on the list of names.

Walking a normal precinct may take 4 total hours, since many people won’t be home. Leave a slim jim on their door if they are registered republican or an independent. You can buy different Ron Paul slim jims that talk about different issues. Someone may be only interested in taxes or gun rights. Give them the appropriate Slim Jim and quickly explain Dr. Paul’s stand on the issue, which you can get from the Slim Jim. Annotate that issue that makes them motivated to vote. If you find a Ron Paul supporter, see if they would like to help volunteer like you are. Some will and some won’t. MAKE SURE that you stick to the issues the voter wants to talk about. You may be concerned about taxes, but the voter might be concerned about abortion. Stick to the topics the voter wants to discuss…that’s called staying on message. You can lose a voter quicker than quick if you start talking about issues they are not concerned about. Don’t argue or debate a person. You have more voters to contact and are wasting your time. Leave them with a Slim Jim and thank them for their time.

I personally used to go back a second time and try and catch all of those people who were undecided and that were not home the first time. You may only get 20% of the people home the first time, so going around again and narrowing who you talk to will shorten your time down and make you more efficient.The entire point is Ron Paul can’t get to every neighborhood, but his volunteers can. If a volunteer takes a precinct and "owns" it, he can let those voters know who Ron Paul is. No other campaign has the volunteers to do this. They are depending on name recognition, media coverage, rallies or advertising in most of the states. If the Ron Paul supporters do this, they are building his name recognition, advertising him, and finding out who is a supporter and who is not.

Something that we did before an election is to call all of the supporters of our candidate and ask them if they needed any help in getting to the polls on Election Day. Most will say no, but a few might need a ride. We thanked them, and told them that the candidate appreciated their vote and we look forward to seeing them on Election Day. This served as a way to tell them: 1) that we care, 2) the candidate appreciates their vote, 3) and that we expect to see them on Election Day. On Election Day we would call all of our identified supporters and verify that they voted. We simply asked if they had voted yet. If not, we told them the importance of the election. We also told them that the candidate really needs their vote today, so he can get in office to take care of whatever issue they were concerned about. We then followed up and asked if they needed a ride to the polls. If they did, either I or another person would pick them up. The important thing here is that the voter is contacted. Each republican voter at a minimum should be contacted. They should receive literature about Ron Paul, and identified as a supporter or someone that’s undecided or a non-supporter.

All supporters should be contacted on Election Day to ensure max Ron Paul votes. Those that were undecided can be contacted too by phone to make one last push in convincing them to vote for Ron Paul. You might be able to convince some of the undecided’s to vote for Ron Paul by calling them on Election Day.

If each volunteer does this than Ron Paul can win a lot of states. He can use his money and his time to advertise and go to the most crucial states. No other campaign can mount this type of grassroots effort. Ron Paul is the only one that has the volunteers. He needs the volunteers to do this since he can’t depend on name recognition or media coverage. Each of us needs to step up to the plate and do our part. First register to vote as a Republican, then go to the Ron Paul website and sign up as a precinct leader. Read through the leader material on the RP site and then put together your strategy for Ron Paul to win your precinct.

HOME MUCH SACRIFICE?

My figures show that if 1 person can spend 1 hour per day in a precinct going door-to-door or making phone calls than Ron Paul can win that precinct. That’s time going door-to-door 2-3 times to catch as many voters as possible, calling them to make sure they are voting, and then calling again on Election Day. The amount of time spent will vary depending on precinct, but an hour or two each day will help. Even if those in the Feb 5th states did this effectively, Ron Paul can win. Most of us spend more than one hour a day online. Those in states like South Carolina, Florida, Nevada, and Maine will vote before February5th and have less time to get this done. Those in states after February 5th can spend more time trying to ensure that every voter whether, Republican or Independent, knows about Ron Paul. Those later states also have the ability to register new people to vote as well.

Really it is not a lot of sacrifice. How will the voters know who Ron Paul is and what he stands for if you don’t tell them? Sign waving and parades build name recognition, but it doesn’t answer the voter’s questions about the issues. Only grassroots efforts in each precinct can get the results Ron Paul needs. This is the most effective and efficient activity that any supporter can do.

This is how an unknown candidate that the media does not pay attention to can win each and every race. Iowa is a case in point. If volunteers would have done in every precinct what those in Jefferson County did then Ron Paul could have won Iowa or at least placed 2nd or 3rd. He did win one county where his volunteers did get out the vote. All that is being asked of you is an hour each day and a couple of hours on Election Day. Truthfully, it is little sacrifice. By committing an hour each day you will be helping Ron Paul win precinct by precinct.

DELEGATES

For all of those go getters out there, spend some time figuring out how to become a national delegate. The Ron Paul website shows what most of the delegate process is in most states. Remember in the end, it’s the candidate with 50% +1 of the delegates that becomes the nominee.

Ron Paul can’t win without us and this strategy. We have to take the battle to the streets. Our leader that we have chosen has asked us to step up to the plate - will we? If Ron Paul looses every state on February 5th, it is our fault for not spreading the message of freedom to each home. Is the Revolution dead? Can you have a Revolution without sacrifice? The time is NOW. Let all of us who will be free stand up and take our message of freedom and a new tomorrow to each and every home. My next article will cover some analysis of precinct size and how few people we each have to influence.