Tonight's Austin debate: What's at stake?

RICHARD S. DUNHAM
Houston Chronicle
Thursday, February 21, 2008

WASHINGTON — Hillary Rodham Clinton, reeling from 10 consecutive defeats and slipping further behind Barack Obama in the delegate count, needs to do something to reverse the front-runner's momentum. Her campaign strategists think they have just the solution: tonight's debate in Austin.

With less than two weeks before pivotal primaries in Texas and Ohio, Clinton campaign officials are counting on landing a memorable zinger or forcing an Obama gaffe that could change the dynamic of the presidential race.

"Debates can turn elections," said Ross Ramsey, editor of Texas Weekly, a nonpartisan political journal. "A front-runner who stumbles can be overtaken, and a candidate who's trying to catch up — or keep up — can regain ground. A big moment by either candidate will get played over and over until everybody knows about it."

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Tonight's nationally televised session at the University of Texas is the only face-to-face encounter between Clinton and Obama before Texans go to the polls on March 4. The former first lady, a skilled debater dating to her time as captain of the Wellesley College debate team, has proposed weekly debates. But the Illinois senator, whose oratorical skills are showcased most effectively in stadium-sized events, has accepted only two debate invitations.

"I don't think it's hyperbole to say that she has to do very, very well in an arena that favors her, or her candidacy is going to be on the ropes," said Harris County Democratic Chairman Gerald Birnberg.


Memorable zingers
The history of presidential debates is replete with campaign-shifting moments.

Texas Sen. Lloyd Bentsen permanently deflated Dan Quayle's image with the memorable zinger, "I knew Jack Kennedy, Jack Kennedy was a friend of mine, and Senator, you're no Jack Kennedy."

Ronald Reagan dispatched both Jimmy Carter in 1980 and Walter Mondale in 1984 with well-crafted comebacks. "There you go again," he told Carter after another shrill attack. And his joke that he wouldn't hold Mondale's "youth and inexperience" against him overcame some voters' concerns about Reagan's advancing age.

The most famous primary debate moment came in 1984, when Mondale, threatened by a surging Gary Hart, suggested that his foe's campaign was fueled by oratory and not substance. "Where's the beef?" Mondale asked, echoing a popular fast-food commercial then.

Gaffes, verbal and otherwise, can alter the political landscape, too. Gerald Ford never fully recovered from his declaration that communist Poland was free from Soviet domination. And Richard Nixon's heavily applied pancake makeup and profuse perspiration in the first televised debate in 1960 made him appear ill. Radio audiences thought Nixon had won the debate, but TV viewers picked John F. Kennedy.

During the 2008 primary season, Clinton's strong performances in early debates stoked talk of her inevitability as the Democratic nominee. Even a well-publicized debate stumble over driver's licenses for illegal immigrants has not cooled the New York senator's zeal for more such encounters.

"Overall, it's one of her strongest forums because it rewards the command of detail that she exhibits," said Rutgers University communications professor David Greenberg. "The stump speech plays more to (Obama's) strength."

Twice during the campaign, purveyors of conventional wisdom have come close to counting Clinton out — before the New Hampshire primary and in the week leading up to Super Tuesday. Both times, said Greenberg, she began her comeback at debates.

"The debate before Super Tuesday, she performed brilliantly, while he performed well, and it helped her," he said.

But Greenberg said it is unlikely that Obama will make the kind of big mistake that turns races around. "Obama has proven to be pretty gaffe-proof," he said. "He doesn't shine in debates, but he seems to perform passably."

Rice University political scientist Earl Black said it is "a sign of high anxiety" that the Clinton campaign is banking on a knockout in Austin.

"It's pretty risky to rest your hopes of re-igniting a campaign on a debate performance," he said. "It's a difficult task to use a debate to regain the offensive."

Still, Democratic consultant Dane Strother, who is not allied with either campaign, said Clinton could begin to shift the momentum with a powerhouse performance.

"She has a lot to do (to catch Obama nationally), and this could be a viable first step," Strother said. "She'll have a zinger or two. Her great challenge is being substantive but not shrill."

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